Archive for July, 2009

Cautious Optimism

After a two week stock rally ended earlier this week mortgage
rates were improving. But earnings reports released today showed better earnings than expected and this sent stocks higher again. Combined with this reports showed new jobless claims at 584,000 for the week ending July 25, an improvement over June numbers that held at more than 600,000 claims each week. This indicates a slowing of new job losses. The volume of ongoing unemployment claims is also moving lower. Unemployment continues to be a huge concern and an indicator of the overall health of the economy, with more than 6.5 million job losses since the recession began in December of 2007.

 

In the Bay Area there are also cautiously positive signs that a bottom may have been reached in the housing market. This article…
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/07/29/BU9A190BAI.DTL
… shows that data from May shows some promising signs. Data more recently seems to indicate the continued trend of foreclosure properties
finding buyers, a very good sign. While we’re not out of the woods yet, as predicted, the second half of 2009 may show light at the end of the tunnel.

  

First time home buyers should get serious about buying if they want to take advantage of the $8000 tax credit they can get from the IRS, and maximize their savings on property prices. This credit ends at the end of 2009. With so many properties for sale at distressed prices it is an excellent time to buy a new home or investment property.

 

Sellers may wish to rethink their listing prices because HVCC went into effect in June. HVCC is the bill that placed all power over appraisers in the hands of lenders. We’ve already seen huge devaluations of properties because the lenders (who are only interested in their own profits) gain when appraisals come in low by using this to justify higher interest rates charged to borrowers. HVCC opens the door to large scale manipulation of property values by the same banks that created our economic crisis! I encourage you to write to your representatives about this issue and urge this bill to be overturned. Sellers need to remember that ultimately the appraisal will determine the amount the lender is willing to lend… so a low appraisal will supersede the amount of an accepted offer, forcing prices downward.

June Bay Area Home Sales & Median Price from DQNews

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay090716.aspx

Banks Ramp Up Foreclosures

Once again our banks are working against providing any assistance to homeowners whether it be in the form of loan modifcation or short sales. They simply refuse to comply. Check out this NY Times article: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/11/business/11nocera.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper

It seems to me that a strongly monitored system of reward or penalty must be defined and implemented. The banks should be rewarded or penalized based on their perfomance with distressed homeowners/borrowers. It seems the only action they are committed to is foreclosure. 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=afOsHVj02UMc

The behavior of our banking system is appalling and, at this point, un-American. Uh-oh! Un-American is a mighty strong statement. Indeed it is. The banks are holding our economy hostage and the ransom they are demanding and receiving is crippling our economy with repercussions we will feel for many years to come.

Absorption Rate (Current Active Listings divided by the Last Month’s Sales)

Single Family Homes

Current Active Listings

Properties Sold in June ‘09

Absorption Rate

up to $499,999

35

56

Less than 1 Month

$500,000 – 999,999

356

103

3 1/2 Months

$1,000,000 – 1,499,999

189

33

5.7 Months

$1,500,000 – 1,999,999

113

11

10.3 Months

$2,000,000 – 2,999,999

108

12

9 Months

$3,000,000 and up

100

5

20 Months

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Condos/Townhomes

Current Active Listings

Properties Sold in June ’09

Absorption Rate

up to $499,999

96

35

2.75 Months

$500,000 – 999,999

94

9

10.4 Months

$1,000,000 – 1,499,999

8

1

8 Months

$1,500,000 – 1,999,999

4

0

~

$2,000,000 – 2,999,999

1

0

~

$3,000,000 and up

0

0

 

Comparison of Marin Sales by Property Type and Price Range for period Jan 1 – June 30

Single Family Homes

Sold Jan 1 – June 30, 2008

Sold Jan 1 – June 30, 2009

% Change

up to $499,000

38

115

302.6

$500,000 – 999,999

334

360

7.8

$1,000,000 – 1,999,999

191

93

-51.4

2,000,000 – 2,999,999

86

34

-60.5

3,000,000 and up

46

18

-60.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Condos/Townhomes

Sold Jan 1 – June 30, 2008

Sold Jan 1 – June 30, 2009

% Change

up to $499,999

105

176

67.6

$500,000 – 999,999

73

36

-50.7

$1,000,000 – 1,499,999

6

7

16.6

1,500,000 – 1,999,999

4

1

-75

2,000,000 – 2,999,999

1

0

 

3,000,000 and up

0

0

 

Comparison of Sales By Property Type & Price Range January 1 – June 30

Single Family Homes

Sold Jan 1 – June 30, 2008

Sold Jan 1 – June 30, 2009

% Change

up to $499,000

38

115

302.6

$500,000 – 999,999

334

360

7.8

$1,000,000 – 1,999,999

191

93

-51.4

2,000,000 – 2,999,999

86

34

-60.5

3,000,000 and up

46

18

-60.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Condos/Townhomes

Sold Jan 1 – June 30, 2008

Sold Jan 1 – June 30, 2009

% Change

up to $499,999

105

176

67.6

$500,000 – 999,999

73

36

-50.7

$1,000,000 – 1,499,999

6

7

16.6

1,500,000 – 1,999,999

4

1

-75

2,000,000 – 2,999,999

1

0

 

3,000,000 and up

0

0

 

Comparison of 2008 vs 2009 Marin Real Estate Sales for Jan 1 – June 30

 

2008 Single Family Sales

2009 Single Family Sales

% Change

 

 

 

 

Units Sold

775

661

-14.7

Average List Price

$1,419,998

$1,022,533

-25.1

Average Sales Price

1,364,350

966,607

-29.2

Average Days on Market

77

99

28.6

Average Sq. Feet

2,288

2,081

 

Price per Sq. Ft.

$596.31

464.49

-22.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008 Condo Sales

2009 Condo Sales

% Change

 

 

 

 

Units Sold

189

220

16.4

Average List Price

$550,822

$379,448

-31.2

Average Sales Price

534,564

364,954

-31.7

Average Days on Market

95

101

6.3

Average Sq. Feet

1,294

1,229

 

Price per Sq. Ft.

413.11

296.95

-28.1

The Golden Goose Is Mighty Sick

Back in February I wrote a blog about how the credit card companies are killing their golden goose – us.

Here’s a link to that article:

http://www.marinrealtygroup.com/insight-to-marin-real-estate/hey-credit-card-companies-ever-hear-of-the-golden-goose/?preview=true&preview_id=161&preview_nonce=eb24a1a406

and here’ s a link to an article that shows the mounting debt, rising credit card interest rates and unemployment are making it impossible for many to continue paying their credit card debt. With the current behavior of greed and abuse by the credit card companies we can expect to see many more personal bankrupcies.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/07/pf/consumer_delinquencies/?postversion=2009070711

US Banks – America’s Domestic Terrorists

US Banks – America’s domestic terrorists. Ah, you say. What a bold statement.

As we approach the 4th of July holiday and honor the founding of America I contend that we have a new threat to America’s economic safety and recovery. That threat is the US banking system.

Being in real estate and working closely with banks regarding purchase loans for home buyers, short sales for homeowners that are underwater and REO’s (properties that have been foreclosed on and are now bank-owned)  I can tell you that the banking system is the #1 reason we are in a housing crisis and the #1 reason it is not recovering.

You don’t have to take my word for it, talk to any mortgage broker or real estate agent trying to negotiate a short-sale for a troubled homeowner. Let’s not even get into the sham that is called loan modification for which so many have applied and so many have been denied. It is such a certainty loans will not be modified that it can only be seen as pure lip service with no substance at all.

What about short sales? God forbid there is more than one loan with one bank. Otherwise the petty fighting and lack of cooperation between the banks would be comic if it weren’t, in reality, creating unbelievable stress for already distressed homeowners.

Is this the fault of the government or the banks themselves?

 Here’s an example of our government tryingto reign in the greed and scams perpertatrated on us by the banking system and the banking systems sleazy reaponse to it.   http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/07/01/credit-card-issuers-getti_n_223448.html

 

As an accomplice, whether willingly or not,  the government is coddling the banks and allowing them to run rampant on US citizens. It’s time to raise our unified bvoice and demand cooperation from the bansk to get us out of the very disaster they foisted on us. Strong words? Damn right! Just not strong or loud enough.

 

On this July 4th let’s make a combined and concerted effort to demand real changes to the way the banks are handling this crisis. Until we make ourselves heard we can expect no relief and no recovery.

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