Yearly Volume of Single Family Home Sales since 2005

(Covering Sales from January 1^st through April 30 of each year)

                Saus    MV       Belv     Tib   CMadera    Lark     SR       

 2005          22        115       14         39        31         26         149        

 2006          15        108         9         31        20          13        134        

2007           22        105        12        37        26         20         141         

2008           11          48         6        27         16         10          99        

2009            8          46          5        12         16         10         77          

              Nov       Kent      Ross       SA    Fairfax   Greenbrae

2005       179          26            6           60         19              15          

2006       146          17           11         50          16                7 

2007       122          23            8          44          25              26

2008       101          13            8          43          16               7

2009        87             4            7          24          14               5

It sure is interesting to watch Marin’s monthly real estate sales in  different price ranges. I break our market into 4 price ranges and calculate statistics for Single Family homes and Condos/Townhomes separately. The price ranges I use are $0 - $499,999, $500k – $999,999, $1M - 1,999,999, and over $2,000,000. The reason for that should be obvious. However, what doesn’t seem so obvious is the fact that the real estate market is different for Single Family homes than it is for Condos/Townhouses. Most of the statistics you read tend to lump the Single Family statistics with those for Condos/Townhouses which misrepresents both.

Looking  at Marin’s April sales of Single Family Homes we see a disparity in sales activity between the different price ranges (keep in mind that 1-3 months of inventory indicates a sellers’ market; 4-6 months of inventory indicates a balanced market; 7 months or more of inventory indicates a buyers’ market):

$0 – $499,999  price range currently has 41 Active listings. There were 16 sales in April (41/18 = 2.3 months of inventory). 2.3 months of inventory, based on April sales, indicates a sellers’ market. Unfortunately, most of the sales in this price range are either bank-owned properties (REO’s) or short sales (not enough money in the sale to pay off the loan).

$500,000 – $999,999 price range currently has 351 Active listings. There were 50 sales in April (351/53 = 6.62 months of inventory). This price range has improved and is teetering between buyers’ and sellers’ market. More improvement in this price range could bring stability to this price range in the next couple of months. 

$1,000,000 – $1,999,999 price range  303 Active listings. There were 12 sales in April (304/27 = 11.3 months of inventory). 11.3 months of inventory indicates a STRONG buyers’ market.

$2,000,000 and up price range currently has 223 Active listings. There were 9 sales in Apriln(223/9 = 24.8 months of inventory). 24.8 months of inventory indicates a STRONG buyers’ market.

I’ll continue to analyze the market and the small improvements we continue to see in certain sectors of our market.

There are many signs, albeit small ones, that clearly indicate a slowly recovering economy.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/05/business/economy/05turnaround.html?_r=1&hp

http://money.cnn.com/2009/05/05/news/economy/bernanke_jec/index.htm?postversion=2009050510

I am so looking forward to Bookstock 2009. Haven’t heard of it, check it out here.

BOOKSTOCK 2009!
MUSIC, ART, & MOVIE FESTIVAL
JUNE 6TH @ 7-11PM

BOOKSTOCK 2009! is a summer celebration of art for the whole family, with partial proceeds benefiting the Giants Community Fund.  Join us for an exceptional evening of art, entertainment, great food and plenty of children’s activities all on the field at AT&T Park.

Attendees will enjoy a night of live music provided by top Bay Area bands including Stroke 9, Eoin Harrington, and the Monophonics, a live art show featuring 25 renowned artists, and an advanced screening of Logan and Noah Miller’s film “Touching Home,” starring 4-time Academy Award nominee Ed Harris; the movie that inspired it all!  Plus, the book release and signing of the Miller brother’s exhilarating memoir Either You’re In or You’re in The Way, published by HarperCollins April 28.

Purchase the Miller Brother’s book and your receipt will admit 2 into the event. Event website (and to buy the book) www.inorintheway.com for tickets only please visit www.going.com/bookstock

*Children 12 & under are free
*The GG Ferry will be running from Larkspur – tickets on their site soon

See you there!

I’m excitedly watching as real estate’s selling season starts. Typically most sales are made from March – October and it will be interesting to see how the new season progresses. I will say, with cautious optimism, that we are seeing evidence in some markets that he bottom has been hit. What does that mean? Well, first we need to see sales volume, which plummeted in 2008, start increasing. Once balance is struck between incoming inventory and properties being sold (absorption rate which is current inventory divided by # of sales in previous month) and we see inventory of 3 months or less then we will start to see pressure on prices and the return of appreciation. In no way do I mean the “fake” appreciation we saw from 2004 – 2007 but slow, consistent appreciation.

Sales of distressed properties in the Bay Area have been the main source of the volume increase we are currently seeing.

In Marin, the $500,000 and under sector of the market is showing signs of stabilization. There are currently 176 active listings. 35 sold in February. 176/35 = 5 months inventory.

In the $500,000 to $999,999 market there are 395 active listings and 41 sold in February = 9.6 months inventory.

In the $1,000,000 to $1,999,999 market there are 260 actives and 10 sold in February = 26 months of inventory.

In the $2,000,000 and up market there are 165 listings and 2 sold in February = 82 months inventory.

Clearly, the only price range of properties moving closer to stabilization is the market under $500,000.

In the Bay Area where most of the home sales are financed with jumbo loans we have been hit hard by the lack of availability of jumbo loans. Is the high-end stagnant due to overpriced homes and/or the lack of jumbo loan availability? Hopefully, that will be answered as lenders move back into the jumbo loan market. Bank of America appears poised to start jumbo lending again.

All in all there are positive signs in the market that have not been present for well over a year. Let’s hope for more of them.

Another reminder to pre-order the Miller Brothers’ book cabout their experience making their first motion picture, “Touching Home” with Ed Harris. The story is fascinating, entertaining and inspiring. PLUS when you pre-order the book you get 2 free tickets to the big event at AT&T Park on June 6. It’ll be a blast! Check it out at:

http://inorintheway.com/ 

The book is only $17 and the shipping is free AND we get free tickets to the big event on June 6 a the AT&T  park. Let’s support these great young artists and have a “ball” at the park.

 When you register make sure you name us, Marin Realty Group, as how you heard about the book. The receipts from ordering online will be your admittance ticket to the park.