The question I’m being asked most is “have we hit bottom yet?” That’s an interesting and complex question. If we weren’t living in the Bay Area my quick response would be “no, we have not”.” 

Working real estate in the Bay Area and more specifically in Marin County the answer needs a bit more analysis. Most analysts gauge the strength of a real estate market by the number of sales (volume) and the average square foot price of the homes being sold. In the Bay Area the highest volume and the highest square foot prices were recorded in August 2005. There have been decreases in either or both volume and square foot price every month since.

The good news for Marin is that although down almost 30% in volume and approximately 5% in average square foot price we have been seeing a steady increase in the volume of single family homes being sold. There has been an increase each and every month of 2008. Many areas in California and throughout the nation have watched as home prices dropped 20%-50% and volume down 50% or more with no end in sight. Not only are single family prices in Marin remaining strong, but as I mentioned, we are now seeing steady increases in sales volume. Here are the numbers of single family home sales since January 1, 2008:

January  83 sales

  February 93 sales

  March 105 sales

  April 148 sales

May 167 sales

Once we record 6-9 months of continually increasing sales we’ll know that we are climbing out of the housing slump. Once sales volume grows at” that steady rate we will once again see pressure on home prices and the beginning of a healthy, more balanced real estate market.

So, to answer the question, “do I think Marin has seen the bottom of the housing correction?  My answer is “yes,” we are” seeing all the signs that indicate we have”.